[Seminaire CREM] Présentation de Fabien RONDEAU, Université de Rennes, CREM - Faculté Des Sciences Economiques

Abstract:
This paper investigates the impact of geopolitical shocks on temporary trade restrictions and on business cycle synchronization. We use monthly bilateral data for 11 countries between 2000 and 2024. We first compute a bilateral geopolitical risk index using data from Caldara (2022) and a measure of temporary trade barriers using data from the World Bank. Then, we use panel estimations and simulate Generalized Impulse Response functions and local projections (Jordà, 2005) in order to evaluate responses of business cycle synchronization after geopolitical shocks and shocks on trade restrictions. As robustness checks, we use different measures for trade restrictions (tariffs, trade costs), for synchronization and control variables (trade intensity and export specialization).
co-écrit avec Yushi Yoshida