[Seminaire CREM] Présentation de Marion Dovis, AMU - Faculté Des Sciences Economiques

Abstract:
Migration intentions are a key precursor to actual migration and depend on aspirations across multiple life domains. We develop a conceptual framework in which individuals first form a migration desire by comparing living conditions across origin and destination, and subsequently form a migration expectation if migration remains worthwhile net of its costs. We incorporate life aspirations – reference levels in education, career, and family – into the framework and distinguish between aspirations perceived as likely or unlikely to be achieved. We link the framework to original survey data on 1,500 young women in Lebanon. While 41% report a desire to migrate internationally, only 16% expect to realize this desire within five years. Unfulfilled aspirations are positively associated with migration desire even when judged as unlikely to be achieved: Unlikely career and education aspirations are associated with 11.4 and 23.1 percentage point higher migration desire. Migration expectation, by contrast, is positively associated only with aspirations perceived as attainable, consistent with these lowering the perceived costs of migration.